Aussies favourites, India dark horses

The air is rife with speculation as the countdown to the World Cup begins. Team combinations, likely upsets and probable semi-finalists have become the daily staple of conversations.

We have decided to fan the debate by assessing the top eight teams on a scale of 1 – 10.

The purpose of this exercise is to arrive at the four potential semi-finalists based on their recent form and prowess in batting, bowling, fielding, captaincy, balance, mental toughness, adaptability, recent record and support staff.

We are not unmindful that cricket is a funny game and, eventually, all our analysis could go for a high toss. But our regular readers will agree that Cricketnext has never held back from taking a call. It will be no different this World Cup.

Of course, we may well have missed a trick or a few names, but this is where you readers can fill the gaps. What better way to premier the grand opera?

Sanjay Jha, V Veera Kumar and Deba Prasad Dhar lapse into thinking mode:

Cricketnext verdict

Based on our point assessments across various key parameters of major World Cup competing teams, we have come to the following conclusions: -

Semi Finalists: South Africa, New Zealand, India and Australia

Winner: Australia

Forget the recent downslide and even the crippling injuries, Australia remain favorites to win a hard hat-trick of World Cups. Sir Gary Sobers may end up playing perfect host. The Australian juggernaut will roll, roll-over and rule.

New Zealand seemed an unstoppable force in 1992, until a younger and less corpulent Inzamam-ul-Haq of Pakistan upset the Kiwi-cart in the semi-finals. But 2007, and after pummeling the Aussies in two consecutive record chases, Craig McMillan & Co. are dangerously ominous. The Black Caps look mean, hungry and ready for a chase (literally!). New Zealand should ‘Bond’ all the way to the semi-finals.

We seriously doubt if the South Africans are gleefully gloating over the default No 1 ODI ICC rankings themselves. But deep down inside they know that they have their best chance to break the World Cup jinx.

We believe that while a semi-final berth seems highly probable, they could do with some reading of Duckworth-Lewis calculations, should heavenly interventions occur (remember 1992 and 2003??).

The Indians have threatened to prosper, and ended up flattering to deceive in the past. This time though the team composition looks solid and they have tasted honey-sweet success of late. We expect Dravid’s Dadas to make the last four grade convincingly. After that, it is anyone’s game. Maybe Sachin Tendulkar will still have the last hurrah. May be on April 28.

Sri Lanka could be the biggest spoiler of India’s chances to make it to the last four stage, as they are a rejuvenated side, and can be highly unpredictable. We see them as running all the semi-finalists close, but finally falling short of the finishing line. M Murlitharan’s teesra also may not do the trick for them.

Pakistan remains a raw, rustic and robust team that can suddenly crumble into sawdust. The coach will slap someone, or someone will slap a spectator. Or better still, they will all be slapping each other. Brilliant individual talent, yes, but a collective disaster. Will board the Rawalpindi Express homeward bound on time.

The West Indies will do an occasional samba, but no Calypso music and gyrating to drum-beats will save them. Extinction guaranteed to the gracious hosts, Brian Lara’s bombastic predictions notwithstanding. Sure, it will be hard for local fans, but barring an occasional flash and dash, don’t expect no fireworks.

England will go all out to save the Queen but they are likely to return early to see Tim Henman practice for his farewell Wimbledon. No chance!

Bangladesh will put up a valiant fight but will lose most battles gallantly. But lose they will.

Zimbabwe will win the Popular Whipping Boys Award who will bolster confidence of teams swimming through troubled waters. They will have their uses. Life-jackets do.

Analysis

Pakistan

Like the West Indies, Pakistan cricket does not cease to oscillate between the ridiculous and the extraordinary. On their day they can pummel any side into submission but thereafter precipitate into complete ruin – a disorder that has its roots in an unhappy dressing room.

Support staff remains a concern; it is common knowledge that coach Bob Woolmer and Shoaib Akhtar do not sing from the same hymn sheet.

Lack of penetration in the first-change pace attack has dogged Inzamam-ul-Haq. Mohammad Asif is yet to perfect the art of bowling at the death. Rana Naved-ul-Hasan and Rao Iftikhar Anjum look like they don’t belong. Doubts continue to linger over the availability of both Akhtar and Asif; the doping controversy is dragging its feet for too long.

Danish Kaneria, a potential match-winner, just about sneaked into the squad. We wonder whether he really enjoys the captain’s confidence.

An unsettled opening pair adds to the dilemma. It must be said, though, that Pakistan’s opening woes are more than offset by an enviable middle-order and exceptional strikers lower down. And, of course, no team can discount Shahid Afridi’s six-hitting derby.

Fielding has never been Pakistan’s USP. Their recent series against the Proteas has been far from inspiring.

South Africa

It has been all summer for Graeme Smith’s well-oiled pace bowling arsenal.

Fasten it with Jacques Kallis, Andre Hall and Shaun Pollock, who can double up with both wood and cherry, and you are leading a special side.

Add to the lot a live-wire fielding unit, and you have a team that has all the bases covered.

Brick it up with the likes of Mark Boucher and Justin Kemp, who can clear the ropes with alarming regularity, and you are best placed to kiss the most-coveted crown in the game.

Mushroomed into the number one slot after two outstanding series against India and Pakistan, South Africa has had the form tables with them.

Their only weakness, if any, is lack of a quality spinner to offset docile tracks. But a pronounced question mark prevails over their mental toughness. The batting is prone to getting edgy at the big stage. Till the time they topple the heavyweights and get into the final, the chokers tag will continue to haunt them.

Sri Lanka

Would not be an overstatement to assert that Sri Lanka is by far the best fielding side in Asia. But that attribute may not be sufficient to help them climb the honeysuckle. Apart from Muttiah Muralitharan the bowling looks one-dimensional.

Chaminda Vaas has had a long layoff. Farveez Maharoof, Dilhara Fernando and pocket-dynamo Lasith Malinga appeared shorn of ideas in the recent series against India.

The Caribbean wickets are more likely to suit slow bowlers, Sanath Jayasuriya and Tillakaratne Dilshan, who can take the pace from the ball and make it hold its line.

Mahela Jayawardene has the most dependable lieutenant in Kumar Sangakara. Both his and Jayasuriya’s form will be central to Sri Lanka’s roadway to the semi-finals.

However, their top-order that could be perched with the best in the world has tumbled way too often for comfort. Chamara Silva has flourished like a rainbow in the cloud. Jayawardene has to do an Arvinda De Silva. Tillakaratne Dilshan and Russel Arnold have staged rescue acts but haven’t steered the side past the finish line. Does not bode well when it comes to taking on the Goliaths.

If the nucleus of the side fires on all cylinders, Sri Lanka has an outside chance of getting into the top four.

New Zealand

Prior to the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy, if someone said that the Black Cats would cudgel the Baggy Greens 3-0, he would have been prescribed stress pills. New Zealand’s renaissance is the most volatile topic in cricket.

Like South Africa, their form has hit boom time. So much so that even the unassuming Brendon McCullum has donned the avatar of a supremo.

By locking horns with Australia, the Kiwis have celebrated the highest level of cricket. Certainly they could not have braced themselves better to face the arc lights.

A line-up that bats deep down, it has un-curtained a stupendous talent: Ross Taylor. A potpourri of both pace (Shane Bond, James Franklin and the like) and spin (Daniel Vettori, Jeetan Patel) completes a dream bowling card. If all-rounders Jacob Oram and Scott Styris do not host anymore injuries, New Zealand will showcase a well-packaged unit in the World Cup.

However, their record in the World Cup (apart from the golden run in 1992) has been nothing to rave about. On wickets as flat as pancakes they occasionally finish up as doddering wrecks.

But in Stephen Fleming the side owns the most innovative mind – that not only borrows ideas from sports like rugby but also plans well and thinks ahead of the game. Back it up with the astute John Bracewell and you feel this is a side that can go the distance. No itchy tag of ‘dark-horses’ this time.

Based on their current form, we back them to cruise onto the semis.

India

Affluent in experience, Team India’s batting retains the nectar-touch of class – easily the best on paper. Robin Uthappa’s cavalier attitude is refreshing. Yuvraj Singh and Mahendra Singh Dhoni own all the cardinal qualities of great finishers.

But Rahul Dravid’s side does not inspire confidence in the other two facets.

The inner circle is manned by fielders on the wrong side of the 30s. Defending 250 could be a tall order. India’s best bet lies in batting the opposition out of the match.

The pace attack is, at best, resourceful. Apart from the newly-minted Zaheer Khan, the country lacks a strike bowler. We ought to ponder whether Munaf Patel will charge in full pelt if India needs more than figures of 1-50?

Though Sachin Tendulkar brings the X-factor with his varieties, Harbhajan Singh is a far cry from the attacking bowler that he once used to be.

Against the giants India has betrayed a tendency to blink first. Win percentage in the last five years: 12.50 against Australia, 33.33 against South Africa and 35.71 against New Zealand, does not augur well.

The side’s support-brass has been found wanting in recent times: the way Munaf’s injury was handled in the Cape Town Test is a case in point.

Injury scares have plagued the team: will Irfan Pathan’s shoulder hold up, will Yuvraj Singh last the course? The captain has plenty to think about.

But it is heartening to see Dravid react to situations. In the Champions Trophy, when games slipped away, he sank into a stoic mien. Of late, his deadpan looks have morphed into animation.

On mere pedigree and the recent wins in the home series, India could be the fourth contender for the semis, though Sri Lanka runs it close. The team’s recent form, particularly the batting, should give them oodles of confidence.

Australia

Is it the lull before a tempestuous storm? Six loses in seven matches is unheard of in Cricket Australia. The form wheels have hit the skids after an overkill of cricket. Most sides feel that this is their best chance to topple the world champions.

The most-feared sword arm in the game, Brett Lee, has been ruled out of the World Cup. To say it is a big jolt would be an understatement. Ricky Ponting, Andrew Symonds and Michael Clarke are also swabbing their bruises.

However, barring the aberrations against New Zealand in the one-dayer at Wellington and the finals of the Commonwealth Bank series, the batting has been in fine fettle. Matthew Hayden has reclaimed his position at the top of the order.

Michael Hussey is blazing away, almost unremittingly. Adam Gilchrist is dusting his jacket but it is a matter of time before some team is made to pay dearly.

The bowling looks rickety. Stuart Clark is not in the same league as Lee. Shaun Tait and Mitchell Johnson, prodigies in their own might, are still tracing their first steps in big-time cricket. Glenn McGrath has looked jaded, while Shane Watson has not quite found his bowling mojo after a long layoff.

The fielding, usually layered on supernaturality, has looked disenchanted.

Yet, on mental fortitude no team comes remotely close to Australia. The recent setbacks would not have blunted their talons (Read: Australia, post Ashes-2005).

In Ponting, they have the best voice in the game. Moreover, the Kangaroos are reputed to be the supreme travellers – a quality that sets them apart from the rest. We back them to fix the loose toggles before the tournament.

England

The victory laps in the Commonwealth series notwithstanding, a distressing ring prevails around England. Paul Collingwood is the knight in the not-so-resplendent armour.

Nobody knows who will lead the side eventually. Michael Vaughan has time and again got under the surgeon’s scalpel. Andrew Fintoff is too precious to be entrusted with any other responsibility, while Andrew Strauss has been painted into a corner.

The attack lacks penetration. On slow and low tracks, Sajid Mahmood, Liam Plunkett and James Anderson could be nuked to their knees.

If Flintoff can find even a semblance of the form (in his dual roles) that deserted him since Ashes 2005, England may do well.

They are starting to understand the realities of modern-day cricket. It is showing a little in their fielding.

Batting is their best bet. Ian Bell lends solidity; Ed Joyce is shaping up admirably. Although Paul Nixon brings the much-needed dash lower down the order, the longish tail is a major worry. Remains to be seen how far it will impact the team. Sri Lanka, for instance, didn’t really need its lower order to fire in the 1996 World Cup.

The molten lava that answers to the name Kevin Pieterson must explode if England wants to compete. But will his ribs and form pull ahead?

Support staff hasn’t reaped raves. Mentally, they don’t stand level with any side. Known to be poor travellers. A tectonic shift in fortunes seems unlikely.

West Indies

Contrary to popular perception, Cricketnext is not quite bullish about the hosts. After the finals of the ICC Champions Trophy, Brain Lara admitted that his side was yet to shrug off “stage-fright.”

The captain is always a threat but much of West Indies’ fortunes hinge on Chris Gayle. Question is: who will crackle a chemistry with him? Perhaps it would be Shivnarine Chanderpaul, but inducting him at the top creates a gaping hole in the middle-order that has been consistently inconsistent.

Ramnaresh Sarwan is a requiem for wasted talent. Marlon Samuels is making news for all the wrong reasons; we do not know whether his mind would be on the gear.

Jerome Taylor can be hostile occasionally but the same cannot be said about Ian Bradshaw. Denesh Ramdin, Daren Powell and greenhorn Kieron Pollard are yet to ripen into luscious fruits. Of the lot, Corey Collymore has the knack of getting the breakthroughs but he ought to be a certainty in the XI.

Like England, the tail is fragile. Not a very good fielding outfit. We are not sure whether they can cross the Rubicon.